Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $95,948$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(2.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{75,625.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 57.0)}}\) (asimptote \(75,625.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,935$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(4.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(131.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,739.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,739.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $67,203$ on 2020-09-16

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $614,360$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(8.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.7\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,243$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(147.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,282.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(28,282.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $433,741$ on 2020-09-16

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $380,677$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(9.71 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{316,104.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 60.5)}}\) (asimptote \(316,104.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,773$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(116.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,796.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(40,796.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $336,714$ on 2020-09-16

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $291,442$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(126.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{249,105.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(249,105.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,645$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.77 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,797.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(34,797.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $40,532$ on 2020-09-16

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $87,575$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,476.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.8)}}\) (asimptote \(86,476.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,860$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(2.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(103.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,741.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,741.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $81,715$ on 2020-09-16

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $443,869$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(6.9 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(82.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{549,929.0}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 161.4)}}\) (asimptote \(549,929.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $31,056$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(131.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,844.8}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(29,844.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $321,520$ on 2020-09-16

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $90,425$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.84 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(89.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{71,932.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 73.4)}}\) (asimptote \(71,932.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,303$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(2.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(134.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,139.3}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,139.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $81,884$ on 2020-09-16

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,799$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,566.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(26,566.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,788$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(3.2 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,740.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 44.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,740.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,647$ on 2020-09-16

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 93%
Poland recovered 40%
Russia recovered 31%
Croatia recovered 24%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,189$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(-2.29 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,891.8}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 30.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,891.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(-6.84 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.0}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 22.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $75$ on 2020-09-16

Poland⮸

Population $37,846,611$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $75,734$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(7.62 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,977.5}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 150.9)}}\) (asimptote \(107,977.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,237$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(439 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,083.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 78.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,083.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,387$ on 2020-09-16

Russia⮸

Population $145,934,462$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,075,485$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.52 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,024,735.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 90.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,024,735.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $18,853$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(2.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,696.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 92.8)}}\) (asimptote \(18,696.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $169,175$ on 2020-09-16

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,029$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.5 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $236$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(9.65 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{273.9}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 121.7)}}\) (asimptote \(273.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,103$ on 2020-09-16